Recently, Genworth Canada released their Spring 2013 Metropolitan Housing Outlook report. Genworth Canada’s report examines average prices throughout Canada for resale homes, the rate of housing starts, and also forecasts how certain regions of Canada will stand, regarding the housing market, a few years down the line.

Canada’s housing market to stabilize

According to Genworth Canada, Canada’s housing market is finally stabilizing after years of rapid growth and decline across the major metropolitan regions of the country.

“The Canadian housing market is transitioning to a balanced level of supply and demand,” commented Brian Hurley, Chairman and CEO of Genworth Canada, in the report. “While lower demand has cooled the housing market, this latest research shows moderate growth over the next few years which points towards a more stable market for both buyers and sellers.”

Causes of the stabilization

Genworth Canada credits the tightening of regulations and constant warnings to consumers to start focusing on their debt levels as major factors in the housing market’s stabilization. If potential homebuyers are focusing more on eliminating debt before going out to purchase a new home, then that makes for a lot of people who will put off purchasing a home for a number of years.

Also, employment gains since the end of the recession have shifted mortgage payments in arrears and bankruptcies to a downward trend. With employment rates up and a stress on clearing debt, housing sales have leveled out. This trend is evident across Canada, except for in British Columbia, where mortgage payments in arrears have flattened due to an upward trend between 2008 and 2010.

Genworth Canada’s forecast for the housing market

Genworth Canada is predicting that 2013 is the year Ontario will experience its first decline in housing starts in four years. This may be the first time in a while that Ontario has experienced a decline in housing starts, but Genworth Canada is still forecasting that Ontario will have approximately 61,932 housing starts this year - the most in Canada. And although the number may drop this year, Genworth Canada believes that the numbers will rise again in 2014.

As far as average pricing for resale homes goes, Toronto is supposed to experience moderate growth over the next three years. Right now, the average resale price in Toronto is about $525,324. By fall of 2014, it will be roughly $537,400, and by fall of 2015, Genworth Canada is predicting that it will be $548,683.

Over the next three years, Vancouver will remain the most expensive city, with an average resale price of $766,468 by 2015. Out of all the regions, Calgary will experience the most dramatic increase over the next few years, going from $428,819 this year to $474,472 by 2015.

So, what kind of house hunters will actually be purchasing in Toronto over the next few years? Will we see more targeting of first-time homebuyers, like Dundee Kilmer’s MyHome Program at Canary District and Daniels' Rent-to-Own program? Perhaps we’ll see a boost in end-users?

Let us know what you think in the comments!

To read Genworth Canada’s full report, click here.