CREA revises its 2011 real estate forecast  Image

CREA revises its 2011 real estate forecast

By on Feb 14, 2011

The Canadian Real Estate Association has revised its forecast on the 2011 real estate market, calling for a smaller decrease then had been originally expected.. Fresh off the heals of a strong end to 2010, CREA feels that momentum will move forward into 2011.


CREA statistics

“The hand-off going into 2011, together with the highs and lows for sales activity posted in 2010, provided guidance for CREA’s revised forecast,”  said Gregory Klump, CREA Chief Economist. 

CREA now expects sales to fall by only 1.6% in 2011. This is in contrast to its projections in November of 2011, which called for a drop of almost 9%. Prices are also expected to do better then forecasted, with a gain of 1.3% increase. 

“Home buyers recognize that low mortgage interest rates represent a once in a lifetime opportunity. At the same time, they expect that rates will rise, so  they’re doing their homework in order to understand what it could mean in terms of higher mortgage payments down the road before they make an offer,” said Georges Pahud, CREA President. “The housing market and buyer psychology is different now than it was at the beginning of last year, so buyers and sellers would do well to consult their REALTOR® to understand local market trends.”

The revision of CREA's forecast reflects improvement in both the economic outlook and improved customer confidence. In 2011, Canadian sales are expected to top out at 439,900 units. In 2012, CREA is forecasting an increase of 3%, which would be on par with the ten year average 

"Recent additional changes to mortgage regulations will further ensure that buyers don’t buy more home than they can afford when interest rates inevitably rise,” said Klump. “The announcement of the new changes to mortgage regulations will likely bring forward some sales into the first quarter that would have  otherwise occurred later in the year, particularly in some of Canada’s more expensive housing markets. This is expected to produce a milder version of the volatility in sales activity that we saw last year which resulted from additional transitory factors.”

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