CMHC: Housing Starts Remain Stable Through June 2014

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its housing starts figures for June 2014, reporting that housing starts in Canada were trending at 185,939 units. This is a slight increase from the 184,019 units in May 2014.

The trending figure is a six-month moving average of monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR). This means that the figures are based on start numbers that have been modified to remove seasonal variation. The figures are then multiplied by 12 to represent an annual average.

The standalone SAAR for June 2014 was 198,185 units, and the SAAR of urban starts was down to 181,185. Multiple-urban starts saw a decrease to 118,815 units and single-detached starts increased to 63,164 units.

The only regions of Canada to see increases in urban starts were Atlantic Canada and the Prairies. Decreases were reported throughout Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia.

CMHC estimates rural starts at 16,206 units for June 2014.

“The trend in housing starts has been stable since March 2014, down from the range of 191,000 to 196,000 seen between September 2013 and February 2014. This is in line with CMHC’s analysis indicating that the new home construction market in Canada is headed for a soft landing in 2014,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist. “Builders are expected to continue to manage their building activity to ensure that demand from buyers seeking a new unit is channeled toward unsold units, whether these are under construction or completed.”

We are confident that Canada’s builders - and especially Ontario’s builders - will be able to control the amount of product they put on the market. We have a smart industry that knows how to adjust to seasons and demand. We have to agree with CMHC when they predict a soft landing for Canada’s new housing market.